How Russia’s withdrawal from Syria could affect Libya and turn Morocco into a key player in Europe

Interesting developments are taking place in North Africa due to the recent regime change in Syria. These developments are intertwined with the war in Ukraine. As reported, Russia is seeking to withdraw its military assets from Syria. Moscow is a staunch supporter of the Assad regime. The latter’s expellers struck a huge strategic blow against the Kremlin, which took control of two bases – the air base in Syria and the naval base in Tatus. In recent days, HMEimim has reported an intensification of Russian evacuations, amid reports that the new Syrian interim government has canceled Moscow’s 49-year Tart-style lease. In fact, two approved Russian naval transports (Spartan and Spartan II) docked in Tatus earlier this week in preparation for the evacuation of remaining Russian military assets from the port.
Where will this evacuated Russian military equipment go? According to Ukrainian intelligence, it seems to Libya. The latter said Russian flights had moved military personnel and equipment from Hmeimim to Libyan bases at least 10 times since mid-December. For difficult evacuations, the same route may be taken. In other words, Moscow wants a military presence along the Mediterranean, so a move from Syria to Libya is logical. Russia already supports the rebel Libyan regime of Khalifa Haftar in eastern Libya.

However, the move raises a question in Africa. First, the Libyan civil war and its consequences continue to be protracted and invisible. Things are complicated by the move of Russian troops into the country. In effect, Moscow’s New Afrika Korps took over much of the dirty work done by Wagner’s militias in Africa. Libya can therefore become a new, serious frontline between NATO and Russia, complicating matters in Europe and threatening sea lanes in the Mediterranean.
Secondly, next door to Libya is pro-Russian Algeria. The latter has become a pain for Spain and France. Since Madrid’s recognition of Morocco’s autonomy plan was the only reliable solution to Morocco’s Sahara problem, Algeria blocked all commercial trade relations with Spain for 900 days. The restrictions were imposed in November as it imposed the same trade ban on France, again over Paris’ endorsement of Morocco’s plans for autonomy over the Moroccan Sahara.

The question of the Moroccan Sahara is leftover historical baggage. This is a man-made problem, perpetuated by Algeria’s support for the separatist Polisario Front. But in recent years, several countries have recognized Morocco’s sovereignty over the Moroccan Sahara through Rabat’s autonomous plan, which is seen as the only realistic solution. Most importantly, the United States recognized Morocco’s sovereignty over the Sahara under the Trump administration in 2020. Now that Trump is back in the White House, the position will only go away.

But Algeria does not want this international support for Morocco because it sees Rabat as a regional rival. It uses Polisario to try to reduce Morocco’s connection to the African continent via the Moroccan Sahara, a plan that is failing.

However, if Russia’s presence in Libya grows, it will create a problem for Morocco. First, Libya is sensitive to Morocco because of how Muammar Gaddafi played a crucial role in supporting and sustaining separatist sentiment over the Moroccan Sahara issue. He was Polisario’s main benefactor. Therefore, since the civil war in Libya broke out, Morocco has been trying to get the two rival Libyan elements to agree on a common political understanding in order to stabilize the war-torn country. Algeria and Russia’s efforts to promote Khalifa Haftar in Libya could undermine those efforts.

Second, the then Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba visited Morocco in 2023 and correctly recognized Morocco’s autonomy plan for the Moroccan Sahara. Obviously, this did not go well in Algiers’ case.

What emerges, therefore, is that Algerian and Russian forces in Libya can put pressure on Morocco and, respectively, on Europe in the Mediterranean. Think energy embargoes and disrupted transportation. The only solution to this problem lies in full support for Morocco, which has become a champion of South-South cooperation and development in Africa. Indeed, the Trans-African Gas Pipeline project, which will see Nigeria’s gas transported through West Africa to Morocco and Europe, is critical to Europe’s future energy security. Trade and commerce were also crucial to the development of the region.
As a result, Morocco is emerging as a crucial strategic player as the consequences of the war in Ukraine begin to affect Africa. In this context, strengthening the partnership with Morocco is crucial for Europe and those seeking stability.

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